U.S. AI Firms Snub Trump’s Flagship Export Program

TL;DR

• The Commerce Department’s American AI Exports Program pulled in just 78 applications in its first round — way below what officials anticipated.
• Major AI firms and industry groups doubt the program’s financing, advocacy, and licensing support will meaningfully boost foreign sales or justify the added regulatory hassle.
• One former department official admitted the program is “not where they hoped it’d be,” with initial interest falling short.
• The lukewarm reception contrasts sharply with strong organic demand for U.S. AI tech globally, suggesting companies prefer private export channels over government frameworks.

The American AI Exports Program’s Stumbling Debut

The Trump administration’s American AI Exports Program — designed to make U.S. semiconductors, AI models, and software the world’s default — has limped out of the gate with disappointing numbers. According to a Politico investigation, the Commerce Department received just 78 applications in the program’s first round. That’s far fewer than officials expected when they launched the initiative.

One former department official told Politico the program is “not where they hoped it’d be,” with initial interest falling well short of expectations. Major AI companies and industry groups are openly questioning whether the program’s promised financing, advocacy, and licensing support will materially improve their foreign sales — or just pile on regulatory complexity.

The program was conceived as a flagship policy tool to reassert U.S. dominance in global AI markets. But its slow start suggests a fundamental mismatch between Washington’s export-promotion ambitions and the priorities of the companies actually building frontier AI.

Why Leading AI Firms Are Sitting This One Out

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: companies like OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and NVIDIA don’t seem to need the government’s help selling their products abroad. Strong organic demand for U.S. AI technologies is already driving international expansion. These firms have built private export channels, negotiated their own deals, and established direct relationships with foreign buyers.

So why would they sign up for a government program that adds bureaucratic layers? Some executives see the initiative as adding red tape without delivering clear commercial upside. The program promises financing and advocacy, but many leading AI companies aren’t capital-constrained — and they already have lobbying firepower and brand recognition that opens doors globally.

I can’t help but think the Commerce Department built a solution in search of a problem. The companies that need export help the most — smaller startups without established international presence — may lack the resources to navigate a government program. The giants who could easily participate don’t see the point.

This is like offering free navigation to someone who’s already crossed the ocean a dozen times. They know the route. They’ve got their own maps. And they’re not keen on filing paperwork to prove they can sail.

The Counterargument: Government Support Matters in a Contested Market

But policy advocates push back hard on this skepticism. They contend that better-structured government support is essential to counter aggressive AI export promotion by China and the EU. Beijing isn’t shy about using state resources to subsidize its AI champions abroad, and Brussels is wielding regulatory frameworks as competitive weapons.

From this perspective, American companies that go it alone risk losing ground in markets where foreign governments actively tilt the playing field. The American AI Exports Program was supposed to level that field — offering U.S. firms the kind of coordinated state backing that their international rivals enjoy.

The problem? The program as designed doesn’t appear to offer enough value to overcome the friction it creates. If 78 applications represents the universe of companies that see net benefit, that’s a damning indictment of the program’s structure. Either the benefits are too small, the barriers too high, or both.

And it gets worse. The program’s second phase — which was supposed to bring companies specific government-facilitated deals to bid on — hasn’t launched yet. Companies are being asked to sign up for a program whose most compelling feature remains vaporware.

What This Stumble Reveals About U.S. AI Export Strategy

The American AI Exports Program was created in 2025 as part of a broader Trump administration agenda to reassert U.S. leadership in AI and advanced computing. It tied together export promotion, national security, and industrial policy into a single framework. The goal was ambitious: make American AI the world’s default by giving U.S. companies systematic advantages in foreign markets.

The slow uptake reveals a deeper tension in Washington’s approach to AI policy. The administration wants greater leverage over where frontier AI capabilities go — both for economic and national security reasons. But the companies building those capabilities prefer autonomy over their export decisions.

This isn’t just about paperwork. It’s about control. Government export programs come with strings attached — reporting requirements, potential restrictions, and the implicit understanding that Washington gets a say in your international strategy. For companies that pride themselves on moving fast and making independent decisions, that’s a tough sell.

The contrast with China is stark. Chinese AI firms operate in an ecosystem where government support and government control are inseparable. U.S. companies want the former without the latter. And they’re powerful enough — and globally dominant enough — to demand it.

What does this mean for U.S. influence in global AI markets? Potentially a lot. If American companies continue expanding abroad through private channels, Washington loses visibility into where cutting-edge AI capabilities are deployed. That makes it harder to enforce export controls on sensitive technologies or coordinate with allies on AI governance.

Where the American AI Exports Program Goes From Here

The Commerce Department faces a choice. It can double down on the current program structure and hope that companies warm to it over time. That seems unlikely given the tepid first-round response and the competitive pressure to move fast in international markets.

Or it can fundamentally redesign the program to reduce friction and increase value. That might mean streamlining application processes, offering more substantial financial incentives, or — most radically — making participation voluntary but creating deal flow so attractive that companies can’t afford to ignore it. The promised second phase, with government-facilitated deals, could be that carrot. But it needs to materialize soon.

Watch whether the administration adjusts the program’s structure before the second round. If the Commerce Department sticks to its guns despite the underwhelming response, that signals either bureaucratic inertia or a belief that companies will eventually come around. If it pivots quickly, that shows a willingness to iterate based on market feedback.

Also watch whether any major AI companies publicly endorse the program or announce participation. Right now, the silence from industry leaders is deafening. A high-profile endorsement from OpenAI, Google, or NVIDIA could shift perceptions and drive broader participation. Continued silence will reinforce the narrative that the program is irrelevant to the companies that matter most.

Finally, watch how China and the EU respond. If they see the American AI Exports Program as ineffective, they may accelerate their own export-promotion efforts — betting that U.S. companies operating without coordinated government backing are easier to outmaneuver in contested markets. That would turn the program’s weakness into a strategic vulnerability.